Ancient Science

Chapter 211 -232

Rainfall seasons
211
6. When planets retrograde and on the days when they begin direct motion, there is a change in temperature, humidity and what the meteorologists describe as disturbance causing rainfall, etc.
7. The following principles are used to predict the dates / occurrence of rainfall in India.
a) After the sun has entered Mrigshirsha nakahatra towards the end of May the south-west monsoon begins to strike Kerala coast. When sun enters Ardra (22-23rd June) every year monsoon enters in Gujarat.
b) When sun reaches and crosses six degrees in Gemini, the monsoon arrives in North India (around June 22) and when sun reaches ten degrees in Virgo on September 26 the monsoon begins to withdraw in North India.
c) If the rains occur on 2nd & 5th day of Ashadh month, there will definitely be more rain during the 2nd fortnight of ashadh & first fortnight of shravan month respectively. It was found to be true (1990 – 2001), except for 1995, in Gujarat.
d) If the 11th day of first fortnight of Ashadh (devpaudi ekadashi) falls on Sunday, Saturday or Tuesday, excess rainfall may occur, causing food grain prices to shoot up. It was found true (1990 – 2001), except 1995 and 1997, in Gujarat.
e) When the sun enters Swati. It causes some occasional rain otherwise the south-west monsoon withdraws totally, in Indian tradition there is reference to the bird called chatak which supposedly waits for the rain-drop of swati.
f) The moon, in certain, ‘nakshatras’ joining, with other planets or when aspected by them can cause or hinder rain. Planets will be placed in the nakshatras given in the Sapta Nadi Chakra.
g) There will be rain when Mercury transits Cancer and join Venus in the north India after August 3.
h) The presence of Jupiter and Venus together in Rohini star shows torrential and untimely down pour of rains.
i) Mars and Rahu together aspected by Saturn causes lightening and cloud bursts.
j) Cyclones on the Andhra Pradesh coast are likely to occur close to periods of sunspot maxima when the planets Jupiter, Saturn, Rahu (Ketu) and Uranus form even loose aspects of Kendra (square) and Samagama (conjunction) between themselves. These indications are strengthened whenever either Virgo or the 12th from it are afflicted.
Astrological method of rain prediction: The planetary chart of time and date of Chaitra Pratipada (Ashwini nakshatra) is laid, which indicate overall weather pattern for the year. Such planetary charts are prepared for the time when sun enters each constellation (Nakshatra) and its each quarter, prediction for that Nakashtra is based on this planetary chart.

Ancient meteorology rainfall & predictions
212
Actual predictions are estimated using place of each planet and its angle with reference to other planets. For each location horoscope is drawn in which first house starts with “Lagna” and houses are placed anti-clockwise. Planet in eighth house is likely to cause problems, while planet in 1, 3, 4, 5, 9 and 10 houses are considered to be helpful for that particular year. Second horoscope is generated at the time of entry of Sun into particular nakshatra and planets in 7 to 12th house are noted for giving quick appreciable results till Sun is in same constellation. Based on this, planet position will indicate possibility of high speed wind damages, rise in temperature and fall in temperature.
The traditional astrologers use ‘Pratiyuti’ (angle of 180° ± 5) between the two planets as the most powerful position for weather prediction. Next important parameter is Yuti (angle of 0° ± 5) and or Samakranti (same declination, 0° ± 1) for weather prediction. Equally important is “Navam-pancham” yoga ((angle of 120° ± 5) between two planets.
Following planets are responsible for weather indicated against them.
1. Sun, Mars and Pluto – Hot temperature
2. Moon, Venus and Neptune- Rain
3. Mercury- Wind
4. Jupiter – Temperature increase (while retrograde it produces cold)
5. Saturn – Cold
6. Harshal – High temperature (Giving damaging effects).
More number of planets in any one nadi gives effect of that nadi.
The literature in local languages includes local folk-lores and songs related to rainfall pattern. Amongst this Ghagh Bhaddari in Hindi, Bhadali Vakyo in Gujarati and Sahadeo Bhadali in Marathi are quite popular. The farmers beliefs in traditional meteorological techniques are quite strong. The local experts used methods and principles evolved by Varahmihir (505-587AD), Gagh (1200-1300 AD), Unnad Joshi (1350-1400 AD) and Bhadali (1000-1200 AD) (Kanani et al., 2002).
In the past, meteorology was considered by ancient Hindus, as a branch of astrology (Raman, 1993). The observations coupled with experience enhanced the great sages of India to delve deep in to the subject of astro-meteorology which was taken by them as a branch of Astrology because the heavenly bodies, the aspects, conjunctions, etc. are common to both. Every member of the solar system exerts an important influence by gravitation upon every other and the same in particular produces diurnal, annual and other variations in the inclination and declination the magnetic needle and effects may possibly be produced upon the very mobile atmosphere of earth too. A comprehensive method of weather forecasting was found in ancient classics and they should be understood and applied through systematic investigation and research for excellent results.

Ancient science of rainfall predictions
213
After taking review of both meteorological and astronomical phenomena have been examined together to understand the stellar influence of the meteorological fields on the earth’s surface. The astro-meteorological forecasting methods proposed by Varahmihira were examined. The study reveals that
1. There exists a strong influence of the sun on the surface mean pressure and the related wind field over India.
2. Each constituent of the stellar system is very compact and moving in a coherent manner keeping each other’s relationship intact.
3. The study demands an urgent need to join together both the meteorologist and astrologers, to pursue the weather forecasting methods feasible for agriculturists in particular and the common man in general and help the country for its prosperity and development (Seetaramayya et al., 2002).
Venugopal et al. (2002) studied the effect of planetary conjunctions and aspects in weather forecasting over tropics. In this study they established linkage through i) Solar influence ii) lunar influence and iii) planetary influence. Astronomical phenomena coincident with the periods of the cyclonic disturbances are identified. Majority of cyclonic events seems to play an active role, either during a period of disturbance or few days before that. Bhat et al., (2002) have examined the effect of planets on temperature. He found that when planet Jupiter is at aphelion (at longest distance from the Sun) there is more dampness and cold weather than usual is felt. Planets responsible for cool weather are Budha, Shani, Harshal, and Guru when in opposition. Position of the Sun at times of New Moon i.e. Season change will give clue to the type of weather during the period. Position is referred in reference to Nadi and Mandal. Planets responsible for windy weather are Ketu and Budh. Planets responsible for hot weather are Surya, Pluto, Rahu, Mangal and Guru when in union. Planets responsible for moist weather are Chandra, Shukra and Neptune. Bhat et al., (2002) states that the planetary position responsible for cold weather in winter is same as those responsible for giving rain in monsoon season.
Shah (2002) in his study of effect of planetary aspects and rainfall prediction for Saurashtra found that
1. The declination of Mercury in the end of May to June determines onset of monsoon in Saurashtra region. The position of Mercury determines cloud formation in Arabian Sea.
2. Venus has effect on cloud formation in Bay of Bengal. The position of Venus has effect on onset of monsoon in Pune and also effect on the trend of monsoon activities on the eastern part of Ghat area.
214
3. Certain position of Sun/Mercury, Sun/Saturn/Mercury has effect on Cyclone. Jupiter and Saturn when they are in conjunction or opposition in longitude (degree) and declination for longer period, cooling effect of weather is observed. If this occurs in November, December, January cold wave is felt. If this occurs in April/May monsoon cycle is disturbed and possibility of less rainfall during monsoon. If this occurs in July, August, there is possibility of i) widespread and ii) satisfactory rain and iii) sometimes prolonged wet spells during monsoon.
4. If Mars is moving ahead of Sun, Mercury and Venus continuously in June and July, the monsoon cycle is delayed hence, less rain or drought can be anticipated in Saurashtra region.
5. Certain position of moon with Jupiter /Saturn brings scattered but heavy showers. As per verification of forecast given by Shah for Pune and Saurashtra records 66.7 and 65.4% average accuracy on the Yes/No basis. The period of forecast given was 1993 to 2001 monsoon.
Bedekar (2002) have reviewed the various time scales of Earth, Sun, Jupiter, Saturn, and the names given to the each time series. Particularly 5 circles of Jupiter (12 yr. each), two circles of Saturn (30 yr. each) completes the 60 years cycle. The separate name is given to each year of 60 year cycle known as ‘Samvatsar’. Each name of the ‘Samvatsar’ is having different meaning. The effect of various time scales (circles) on monsoon was studied. He mentioned various ‘Vahana’ of Nakshatra and accordingly rainfall prediction can be given.
Sabale et al., (2002) have reviewed the traditional folk-lores regarding rainfall in reference to Maharashtra State from the text ‘Sahadev Bhadali’. The day on which first Hindu day i.e. Varsha-pratipada occurs can give us the general idea about the overall trend of monson. He has reviewed various sources of traditional information about rainfall viz. Date Panchang, book of ‘Sahadev Bhadali’, Rain prediction from ‘Rainbow; from cloud colour, shape, wind direction and day of Varsha-pratipada. He has also given his experience of Pune rainfall forecasting indicators.
Lele (2002), gave the astrological method of rainfall prediction for MS. He was writing rainfall prediction in very popular ‘Date Panchang’ of Solapur. He predicted for M.S. based on the planetary positions, aspects and other astrological reasoning for 19° N latitude and 76° E longitude. He gave prediction at least a year before commencement of rainfall. He gave major clues for rainfall prediction as below. Sun is the major planet (Star) for all weather we experience on earth so he considerd planetary positions such as conjunction, opposition, trine with sun and other planets.
215
The movement of all planets in various constellations, Rashis (Zodiacs), their rise and setting time and the conjunction of declinations are considered for rainfall prediction. He has divided all planets, Zodiacs and constellations according to their character as Hot, Cold, Watery and Non-watery. The Kunadli for Sun’s entry in Mesha, Vrishabh, Mithun, Vrishchik rashi and Ashvini to Swati constellations was considered. The year comes under which ‘Mandala’ was considered. He considered above combinations while preparing the rainfall prediction for MS. He found the astrological reasons for break in monsoon as below.
i. Mars ahead of Sun.
ii. Mars ahead of Venus.
iii. Jupiter ahead of Venus.
iv. Sun in between Mercury and Venus.
v. Saturn when in retrograde motion.
vi. Jupiter and Mars when they are within 30° distance.
Mangaonkar (1920) in his book entitled ‘Havaman Jyotish’ (astro-meteorology) gave theory and practice of weather prediction on astrological basis. He advised to consider friend and foe relationship of planets and also the complementary, miscible and non miscible elements of planets and constellations for weather prediction. He advised to consider effects of twenty fixed stars in horizon in addition to constellations on weather.
Ayangar (2009) studied year to year variation of Indian monsoon rainfall as described qualitatively in some ancient Sanskrit texts. Interestingly, these are cyclic with periods of 3,5,7,18 and 60 years. Time series analysis of actual seasonal rainfall data shows that at very near the above periods the spectrum has significant peaks. The Venus visibility portent stated in the Arthasastra appears to be a proxy for the near three year fluctuation cycle in the rainfall. Kautilya mentions that rainfall for the season depends on the visibility of Venus. He expects good rainfall if Venus were to be sighted in the eastern sky during the monsoon season.
Zain (1949) from USA in book entitled ‘Weather predicting’; renewed in 1975, has advised to prepare weather charts and moisture charts at the time of Sun’s entry into zodiac for a given place. He has also given guideline to predict temperature, air movement, moisture, wind, unusual weather, tornadoes and hurricanes in tropical belts.
Riske (1997) in her book entitled ‘Astro-meteorology’ has advised to consider 1st, 7th ,4th and 10th position in kundali (planetary chart) of a given place and time. She has recommended to consider a kundali for the time of Sun’s entry into zodiac, Sun and Moon position at 0, 90, 180 and 270° and planets in 1, 7, 4 and 10th house in addition to North and South half, East and West half of the kundali.
216
She has classified the aspects into 3 classes negative, positive and neutral and has mentioned specific effect of these combination aspects of particular planet on weather. She has given guideline to predict wind, thunderstorms and hailstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, heat and cold wave, drought and snowfall in respect to USA.

Case Study-I:- Nakshatra Varsha Almanac:

This Alamance (Varshneya et al., 2002) was designed for farmers to predict rainfall distribution in next rainy season. The techniques gave prediction of onset and withdrawal of monsoon and distribution of rainfall about six months in advance. Pictorial assistance is given to assist farmer in noting indication of commencement and withdrawal of monsoon. So that it is possible for the farmers to change the crops to decide area under kharif and rabi season. Vaidya (2004) briefly gave the relative advantage of “Nakshtra varsha” calendar for Maharashtra.

Case Study – II:- AAU’s Monsoon Research Almanac:

Based on astrology Anand Agricultural University, Anand (2005) prepared Nakshtra-Charan wise forecast for eight agro climatic zones of Gujarat. The validation of this forecast on Yes/No basis indicated that accuracy varied between 42 % to 73% for various zones (Table 3). After that, almanac was prepared by Anand Agricultural University, Anand, to predict rainfall distribution in Monsoon season (2006) on temporal (day to day) and spatial (different zones) basis, for farmers of Gujarat state (Varshneya et al., 2006). Gujarat is divided into eight agro-climatic zones. This almanac gives forecast for daily rainfall of each zone. The rainfall on daily amount was considered as no rainfall, low rainfall (<2.5 mm), medium rainfall (5-10 mm), heavy rainfall (>10mm). Simultaneously, agricultural operations to be carried out during particular month and contingent crop planning according to the rainfall forecast was also suggested.

Methodology Used for preparation of Monsoon Research Almanac from 2007 through 2012:

1. Nakshatra Pravesh of Sun: The Kundali at the time of Sun’s entry into each Nakshatra was casted for each required place (i.e. district) for the period of Rainy Season. This gives average rainfall for a period of 12-13 days for that Nakshatra, at that place (Varshneya et al, 2008).
2. Nakshatra Charan Pravesh of Sun: The Kundali at the time of Sun’s entry into each Nakshatra Charan was casted for each required place (i.e. district) for the period of Rainy Season. This gives average rainfall for a period of 2-3 days for that Nakshatra Charan, at that place. Daily rainfall was predicted by using Chandra Nakshatra.
3. A finer astrological technique of shashthansha (1/60th part of Rashi) kundali was used to distinguish planetary positions/aspects between two adjoining districts.

217
4. From each Kundali, various aspects like Mandal of the Lagna, Planets in Saptanadi Chakra, Vedhas amongst the planets, and different aspects between planets like Yuti, Pratiyuti, Navapancham Yoga, Kendra Yoga, etc., were taken into account. Importance is given if a planet changes its direction (Vakri or Margi), changes Rashi or Nakshatra, or becomes Asta or Udita.
5. Similarly, Poornimanta and Aamanta Kundalis were prepared for predictions. Kundalis were also prepared for eclipses. Effects of sighting comets were also considered.

Meteorological inputs used in Monsoon Research Almanac from 2007 through 2012
1. Rainfall probability of getting ≥ 10 mm rainfall in standard meteorological week (MW) was calculated by Markov chain model, was given for each district (Data of weekly rainfall for 50-100 years was used for analysis).
2. Monthly normal rainfall is given along with projected rainfall for each month for each district.
3. Monthly normal Maximum and Minimum temperature for each district were also given.

Computation of Rainfall Projection: The predicted rainfall intensity on daily basis viz. No rainfall, Low, Medium, Heavy and Very Heavy for each district (25) of Gujarat state from June to October month was used to quantify the rainfall amount of the state. Criteria for quantifying daily rainfall from qualitative prediction for districts under each Agricultural University of the respective region was decided based on frequency analysis for given rainfall intensity and used in the calendar as mentioned in Table 6. By using criteria mentioned in Table 6 for each district of the respective region, the monthly rainfall projection was computed and it was given in calendar against the normal monthly rainfall.

Rainfall in india
218

Table 6. Criteria for quantifying daily rainfall from qualitative prediction in
different regions of the state.

Sr. No. Name of Region / SAU Daily Rainfall quantification (mm)
No Rain Low Medium Heavy Very Heavy
1 Middle Gujarat (AAU, Anand) 0 2 10 35 75
2 North Gujarat (Sardar Krishinagar Dantiwada Agricultural University, SDAU, Dantiwada) and Saurashtra (JAU, Junagadh) 0 2 10 30 50
3 For Kutch district* 0 1 6 25 50
4 South Gujarat (Navsari Agricultural University (NAU, Navsari) 0 6 25 70 100
* Since the rainfall recorded in Kutch is very low, therefore, separate intensity was considered for this district in North Gujarat region.

Validation of Rainfall Predicted in AAU’s Monsoon Research Almanac– 2005-2012:
Validation of rainfall forecast, for the year 2005, was done on Yes/No skill score (%) basis, for different zones of Gujarat. The validation of this forecast on Yes/No basis indicated that accuracy ranged between 52 to 73% for various zones (Table 7). During the year 2006, Yes/No skill score (%) for different zones of Gujarat ranged between 49 to 53%. In August and September rainfall was well distributed spatially over Gujarat, hence, range of accuracy was less. During 2007 accuracy varied between 54 to 69% for various zones. The validation of rainfall for the year 2009, on Yes/No skill score basis for June, July, August and September month indicate that average accuracy was 46%, 56%, 49% and 52% for four regions viz. Middle Gujarat, South Gujarat, North Gujarat and Saurashtra respectively. On an average 51% accuracy was observed for 2009 for Gujarat state. During 2010, on an average 71.3% accuracy was observed which was highest amongst last seven years (2005-2011).

219
The validation of rainfall forecast on Yes/No basis indicated that average accuracy varied between 37% (2008) to 71.3% (2010) for state as a whole. Overall state average skill score was 58.8%. Among the four regions average accuracy was highest in South Gujarat (63.1%) and lowest in North Gujarat (54.5%) for the period of eight years from 2005-2012.
Table 7. Validation of Yes/No Skill Scores of occurrence of Rainfall
Sr. No. Name of Region / SAU 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average
1 Middle Gujarat 58 52 63 36 46 75 73.8 67.3 58.9
2 North Gujarat 52 53 59 35 49 64 66.0 57.8 54.5
3 South Gujarat 64 52 69 41 56 74 74.0 74.5 63.1
4 Saurashtra 73 49 54 35 52 73 66.3 59.0 57.8
State Average 62 52 61 37 51 72 70.0 64.6 58.8

Validation of Rainfall Projection given in AAU’s Monsoon Research Almanac

Rainfall intensity was predicted for the first time in AAU Monsoon Research Almanac-2007 and has been predicted till 2012. The rainfall projection on monthly basis for each district of Gujarat state was given in Calendars. The validation was done with actual rainfall for each district. The percent deviation from actual rainfall for each zone and state as a whole was studied and presented in Table 8. The data reveals that in years 2007, 2008, 2010 and 2011, we had correctly predicted the above normal rainfall with more accuracy. The error was below 10%. For the year 2009 we have successfully predicted below normal trend. But for the year 2012 we have overpredicted Gujarat’s state as a whole rainfall. From the year 2007 to 2012 the average error was -7.9% for state as a whole which was below 10%. The most accurate prediction was done for 2010 monsoon with only 1.1% error followed by 2007 monsoon prediction with 4.6% error. Average error was lowest in Middle Gujarat (1.92%), while it was highest in Saurashtra (-17.98%).

Table 8. Validation of rainfall projection for four regions of Gujarat.

Sr. No. Name of Region Rainfall Projection (% deviation from actual)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Average Error (%)
1 Middle Gujarat 6.1 16.2 -25 10 29.34 -25.10 1.92
2 North Gujarat 37.4 6.6 -43 -19.6 -11.03 -31.50 -10.2
3 South Gujarat -37.6 11.0 -15 38.3 16.76 -45.60 -5.36
4 Saurashtra 49.6 -19.4 -45 -37.5 -2.62 -52.90 -17.98
State 4.6 6.3 -29 1.1 8.1 -38.8 -7.9

ANCIENT SCIENCE OF RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT
Rainfall enhancement
220
Artificial rain making experiments were carried out in Rihand catchment in UP, Linganmakki catchment in Karnataka and also in 1975-77, in the districts of Panchmahal and Sabarkantha in Gujarat state of India by various research institutes viz. Physical Research Laboratory (PRL, Ahmedabad) and Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune etc. The success rate of cloud seeding was not that encouraging as reported in the newspapers (Ramakrishna et al., 2000). Drought of year 2003, compelled MS Government to spend Rs. 5.4 crore for artificial rain making named as ‘Project Varsha’ to bring rain to 73 drought prone talukas in eight districts of the state. Three month experimentation was planned in collaboration with Agni Aviation, the Indian subsidiary of the US based firm, Weather Modification Incorporated (WMI). The experiments were carried out from Baramati in MS by constructing 35 feet steel tower on which 12 foot radar was installed. This radar was tracking in 250 km radius for rain bearing cloud (Times of India-Pune, dated 15-09-2003). In spite of spending crores of rupees the rainfall enhancement was not up to the expectation. Monsoon cycle is disturbed due to many natural as well as anthropogenic reasons. Vedas proposes the “uncommon” remedy of performance of Somayags, for balancing the six Rutus (seasons).
In the year 2004 first World Congress on Vedic Sciences was held at Bangalore during 9-13 August, 2004 in which a paper on ‘Rain Induction through the Vedic Technology’ was presented by Kale et. al., 2004. Earlier studies showed that there is need for studying these experiments with scientific data collection. The study of 19 + 11 ‘Nitya’ and 20 + 5 Naimittika Parjanya Yag performance was carried out during 1981 – 2003 by Shri. Yogiraj Ved Vijnan Ashram, Barshi, Dist. Solapur (MS.). The overall success was about 80% in achieving the objective of the Parjanya Yag (Kale et al., 2005). These Parajanya Yagas were done in M.S., Gujarat, M.P., Kerala, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Tamilnadu. During 2004, Parajanya Yag was performed at 13 places from M.S. and Kerala. All places except Akola in Vidarbha have recorded good and well distributed rainfall from Rohini to Swati Nakshatra (Kale et al., 2004).
221
During 2005, Nitya Varunyoga Parjanya Yag was performed from 6-10 April, 2005 at 14 locations. These Parajana Yagas gave positive results. After paper presentation at first World Congress on Vedic Sciences, Yogiraj Ved Vijnan Ashram have performed more Somayaga in M.P. (2) and 14 Nitya Varuna Yag in M.S. which gave very good results as well distributed rainfall was observed in all nakshatra at these 14 locations. The yearly average skill score for rainfall prediction based on rainfall conception observations at Barshi (MS) and it was 75.2, 77.8, 87.6, 74.4 and 78.8% for the years 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 respectively. The overall average skill score for rainfall prediction was 78.8%. In general the skill score was good and it can be concluded that the rainfall prediction can be made successfully based on the RCRD with a better accuracy (Varshneya et al., 2008).
Origin of Somayajna Performance and Evaluation Research

In the summer of 1956, the first president of India, Dr. Babu Rajendra Prasad, came to “Panchmadhi” in Madhya Pradesh, Shri. Paliwal the Secondary School teacher has presented his research paper on “Twelve Jyotirlingas”. The summary of his findings was 12 Jyotirlingas are originally Holy Fire Places, which are supposed to be the centers which attract and accelerate the Monsoon cycle in Bharat Khand. Bharat, Pakistan, East Africa, Madagascar, West Indies, South America, Bangladesh, Thailand, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka and North Australia get the rains from monsoon. Late and weak monsoon occurrence very badly affects these countries (Anonymous, 2006a).
If the series of Yajna are performed before monsoon activates, “Bharat Varsha” (India), will get timely and sufficient “monsoon rains”. India is facing floods in one part and dry-spells in other part of the country. Untimely and uncertain rains have become common feature of the seasons. Natural cycle of seasons has been disturbed by the human race itself through pollution on all planes. Vedas recommend “Uncommon remedy” of “Somayaga” to overcome such disasters. So, this “Project Somayag” was planned to balance the seasons and timely and sufficient monsoon rains in the rainy season of 2006. The Somayagas were planned at 16 places consisting of 12 Jyotirlinga places and 4 other places in India during 2005-06 (Anonymous, 2006a).

Review of Rainfall Enhancement Experiments as mentioned in Vedic Literature:

Vedas are the oldest literature of humanity. The UNESCO has declared, “An oral tradition of Vedas is intangible heritage of humanity.” In Vedas it was originally proposed to perform shrout somayagas on three Fires from Vedic period to present days somayagas are traditionally performed.
Somyagya for rainfall

222
Somayag is the offering of Soma Elixir to appease the 6 Rutu Devatas (Energies), in order to redress the balance of the 6 seasons which seems to be in chaotic disarray. In Somayaga, Soma juice oblation is given to Indra Devata, Which showers the good rains on earth, and rains are the source of life on earth. Somayag is believed to strengthen the 5 elements or Pancha Mahabhutas (Pruthvi, Aapa, Teja, Vayu and Akash) in order to bestow prosperity and restore natural equilibrium. Prof. Dr. Fritz Stall (Berkley, University, USA) says in his ‘Agni’ book; “When we think of Vedic somayag rituals, we stand in awe of this unique survival, so archaic yet so sophisticated, so close to early history of man and so lovingly preserved through millennia which saw the birth and death of entire civilizations in other parts of world. While, pyramids, temples, cathedrals and sky-scrappers were built and fall into decay, languages and religions came and went, and innumerable wars were fought and are still going on, the Vedas and their ritual continued to be transmitted by word of mouth from teacher to pupil, from father to son. What a triumph of the human spirit over the limitations of matter and physical body. A continuity verging on immortality though not of individual person, and so we found ourselves involved not merely in past, but present and future as well”. So, for the welfare of the whole creation, we as followers of Vedic culture must perform somayagas (Anonymous, 2006a).

References of performance of somayagas:
The references for performance of Somyagas for Rain induction and Rutu santulan was found in ancient literature as below (Varshneya et al., 2007)
1. All Devas performed Ashwamedha to strengthan cerator of Universe i.e. Prajapati. (Taittiriya Brahman 5.4.12)
2. Rishi Angiras performed shrout Yajna for immediate rains to subside the drought period and get healthy grass for cattle.
3. The father of Seer Nachiketa performed Vishwajit Atiratra (Kathopanishad).
4. “Raja va esh yajnanam aswamedha” Shatapath Brahman 13.2.9.2. Ashwamedha is supreme King among all shrout Yajnas.
5. “Shree r vai rashtram ashwamedh” Ashwamedha should be performed for prosperity of nation. (Shatapath Brahman 13.2.2.1)
6. Prabhu Shri Ramchandra performed Ashwamedha (Ramayan).
7. King Bali performed Rajasuya (Ramayan).
8. Raja Harishchandra and Dharma raja (Pandavas) Performed Rajasuya and Ashwamedha (Mahabharata).
9. King Janamejaya and Pushyasmitra performed Ashwamedha in the period of 1 to 7 A.D. King Shatakarni, King Bharashiva and Samrat Samudragupta and many others performed Ashwamedha and other shrout yajnas for good rains and prosperity on all planes of the nation.

223
10. In historical period King Jay Chandra of Kanauj performed Rajasuya, Queen Naganika performed Ashwamedha.
In present days also shrout yajnas are performed all over India.

When such skilled Vedic expertise performs Somayag, it can trigger the genesis of large isolated storms, or even entire frontal systems, which can quench parched lands and charge a stagnant atmosphere back to its more natural sparking character. Somayag has the general capability of affecting jet stream movements and steering large storms. Cloud cover can be increased to generate wide spread rains. In skilled expert hands, Somayag has variety of effects which can benefit a region, primarily in restoring natural cycles of monsoon rainfall to drought areas. It may provide a means for reducing the acidity of rainfall. It must be remembered that this ARIT (Ancient Rain Induction Technique) of somayag is a tool by which the atmosphere is restored to a state of self regulated functioning. It is not a “Weather modification” apparatus, like cloud-seeding, where atmosphere is forced to do this or that. Somayag is simply a tool to help to a nature or to assist. But it has to be performed at right time and place, to accelerate natural process of atmospheric pulsation, and to eliminate stagnation or blockage in natural energy flow.

Case Study – III:- Somayaga performance at 12 Jyotirlinga

The results of rainfall occurrence were evaluated at16 places where somayajna were performed during 2005-2006 as well as in the country and states like MS and Gujarat. For the country as a whole monsoon rainfall was 99% of LPA, whereas region like central India has received 17% above normal rainfall.
224
Maharashtra recorded 14% above normal rainfall (Anonymous, 2006b). Nakshatrawise rainfall at most of the places revealed, well distributed and above normal rainfall. There was early onset of monsoon by 7 days and late withdrawal by 20 days (in MS). The evidence was found regarding increase in water table in some of the districts of Maharashtra. All the water reservoirs and dams were overflowing during monsoon 2006. Negative impact was observed for very heavy rainfall and flood in some rivers and places. Varshneya et al., (2007) elaborated the results of performance of somayagas conducted at 12 jyotirlinga and four other places during 2005-06 on the monsoon rainfall of 2006.
Highlights of Somayagas performance at 12 jyotirlinga and 4 other places:
1. For the first time 16 somayagas (including 12 Jyotirlingas) were performed for Suvrushti.
2. SW-Monsoon arrives 7 days earlier than normal date.
3. Monsoon withdraws from M.S. around 20 days late than the normal.
4. In MS and some other state there was rainfall observed from Rohini to Anuradha constellation (14).
5. Though IMD has predicted 93% rainfall, in M.S. it was around 100-120% of normal.
6. There are 5 places of somayag (includes 4 Jyotirlinga) in MS it was observed that there was highest rainfall in Pushya nakshatra (20th July to 2 nd Aug., 2006).
7) National Climate Center declares that there was increase in rainfall in MS from last three years viz. 2004, 2005 and 2006 showing increasing trend in rainfall.
8. Rainfall conception and Rainfall Delivery dates are matched as per Brihatsamhita, average accuracy of 80% is observed at all places.
9. All the dams, water reservoirs were overflowing during 2006.
10. Timely sowing of kharif and rabi crops in M.S. and other adjoining states.
11. There was growth in agricultural production.
12. Ground water level has risen in several places (e.g. Jalgaon district in M.S.). In all 15 talukas of Jalgaon district, there was increase in water table by 4-18 feet.
Special Observation:
Calamities like flood in rivers and very heavy rainfall was observed. According to our understanding it may be due to late performance of Somayaga at certain places due to financial and administrative hurdles along with some unknown reasons.

Case Study – IV:- Somayajna performance in MP

Shri Yogiraj Ved Vijnan Ashram, Barshi (MS) was invited by Madhya Pradesh Government in February, 2008 to carry out Somayajna in around 10 places in MP particularly in Bundelkhand area.
225
This area was facing drought like situation since last three years. Hon’ble Chief Minister of MP, Ma. Shivrajsinghji Chauhan made sankalpa of these 10 somayajnas at Bhopal on 04-02-2008. Further next year with the active support of Hon’ble CM, of MP, the somayajnas were carried out at 11 places in 2009 and 10 places in 2010. So, in total 31 somayajnas were performed during 2008 to 2010. In total 19 districts of MP were covered under somayajna performance from 2008 to 2010. One district Khargone was covered for all three years for five somayajna performance, whereas 7 districts were covered for two years, while 11 districts were covered only once in three years period of somayajna performance during 2008-2010.

Suggestions for Somayajna performance for rainfall enhancement

1. Somayajna performance should be performed at places with following criteria
a. It should be Jyotirlinga place. From study undertaken during 2005-2006, all jyotirlinga places (12) and other 4 places gave significantly good results, so, it may be continued further, covering Jyotirlinga places at least for five years continuously.
b. The place selected may be origin point of river or on the bank of the river.
c. The place selected may be continued for at least 5 years for studying the rainfall pattern.
2. The data like crop under sowing and production of all important kharif and rabi crops in the districts made available for impact study.
3. A long term project may be prepared and sponsored to undertake detailed evaluation of somayajna performance.

RAINFALL PREDICTION BASED ON RAIN CONCEPTION RAIN DELIVERY (RCRD) THEORY

Vedas are supposed to be the oldest literature of human race all over the world. Hence, UNESCO has declared that, “Oral tradition of Vedas, is the intangible heritage of humanity”, with unanimous decision of Jury Committee.
There are four Vedas
1) Rigved 2) Yajurved 3) Samved and 4) Atharvaved.
To promote and safeguard the ecological balance of nature is the central thread, which has woven the garland of Vedic literature. Vedic seers were quite aware about the fact that, “water” is the inseparable entity from life in the cosmic creation. So, they named water as “Jeevan” as “Life” itself. And in this atomic age, we are experiencing its cent percent truthfulness. Considering this priority of ‘Water’ in actual life, Vedic seers made first attempt in this direction, was to produce food, making good use of the available rainfall in the region. Though they have to face extreme situations like, heavy rains, winds, cyclones, cold and hot spells, droughts, floods etc. they gradually tried to sort out the seasonal character of the rainfall and associated phenomena and started planning their agriculture operations accordingly.
226
This was the starting point of weather sciences all over the world. In India, further development of this subject commenced in early Vedic period of Rigved. To ensure, availability of plenty of food and thriving of animal and plant life leading to human prosperity, vedic seers felt necessity to understand rainfall situation in coming future rainy season.
Through daily observations of sky dome and atmospheric factors, Vedic seers on the basis of their impartial consciousness i.e. “prajna”, interpreted in the observed weather data and established the concept of “Rain Conception and Rain Delivery i.e. RCRD theory”. We find the oldest reference of RCRD theory in Rigved. The 164th Sukta of 1st Mandal of Rigved Samhita, contains some clear concepts on the rainfall process. Meaning of three mantras from above 164th Sukta runs as below.

Saptardha garbhah bhuvanasya reta
Visnostisthanti pradisa vidharmani I
te dhitibhirmanasa vipascitah
paribhuvah paribhavanti visvatah I I (Rugveda Su. 164.36)

Meaning:- The rays of the sun hold the waters capable of fertilizing the earth for six months. Pervading the sky, they wait for performing their duty of drenching the earth with showers”. Here “Saptardha gabhaha bhuvanasy reto” etc, one scholar has interpreted “Saptardha” as six months and half of seventh month”.
Krsnam niyanam harayah suparnah
apoavsana divamut patanti
ta ava vrtrantsadanad rtasya-
didghrtena prthivi vyudyate II (Rugveda Su. 164.47)

Meaning:- “The rays of the sun following the dark (southern) path, take the waters and move upwards (northwards), They turn back from the source of ‘rta’ i.e. Himalayas and drench the earth with waters.”

Samanameta dukamuccaityava cahabhih
Bhumim parjanya jinvanti divam jinvantyagnayah II (Rugveda Su. 164.51)

Meaning:- “The waters go upward and come downward in the same measure during periods (of the respective seasons). ‘Agni’ takes waters to heavens and ‘Parjanya’ brings them down as rains.
Vedic seers imagined that the sun’s rays absorb the water from below and the certain period is required for the rays to get fully charged with water at the end of which they deliver the rains to the earth. This period is mentioned as about half a year or six months. Second mantra refers to moving of the sun to north and south directions i.e. Uttarayan and Dakshinayan.
227
In “Ramayana” (Ayodhyakand) the meaning of verse runs, which is replica of second mantra of said sukta. “When the sun after moving northwards, turns back to the south, there is appearance of thick clouds (of Monsoon) in all directions”.
The mantra 3 of the sukta clearly indicates the proportion of ‘evaporation’ and ‘precipitation’ process in the same measure with which modern meteorology also agree i.e. principle of hydrological balance.

Bruhat Samhita of Varahmihir

Bruhat Samhita of Varah Mihir (VM) is supposed to be the ancient standard book on astro-meteorology, which explains methods for short-range, medium range and long-range rainfall predictions. In chapters 21-28, of Bruhat Samhita, Varah Mihir explains details of the Rainfall prediction process and associated subjects.
In chapter 21- he gives signals or symptoms of formation of rain fetus; and its potentiality of prediction area and quantity.
Chapter 22—gives details of rain fetus whether it is healthy or not, Chapter 23—gives account of signals relating weather fetus will precipitate or not it’s quantity and method of making rain-gauge, Chapter-24—Rohini Yoga is explained in details, relating to direction of wind blowing which indicates future rainfall. He also gave the methods to measure wind direction and speed, Chapter 25 – Swati Yog is explained for rain-prediction, Chapter 26 – explains Ashadhi Yog for rain- prediction, Chapter 27 – gives details and effects of Vat- Chakra i.e. wind-blowing and Chapter 28 – gives signs of immediate rain i.e. Sadyo Vrishti.

Annam Jagatah Pranah Pravrut kalasya chantra mayattam I
Yasmadatta Parikshya Pravrut Kalah Prayatnen II (BS-21-1)

Meaning
Anna (Food) is the prime life force of the universe, controlled by rain. Hence, we should study rain with lot of efforts. We evolved as Human, only because, our fore-fathers realized this Truth. Today, we have Anna, we got rain; Prana is missing (Bhat et al., 2009). Samskrit is Dev-vani, Anahata nada. Tune in, you have it all. Break this password – knowledge is yours. We used this method, to unrevealed ancient weather forecasting method, based on astrometrological principle of rainfall conception – mentioned in Bruhat Samhita of Varahmihir. Search for Prana revealed there are many who get affected by Conception of Rain. viz., clouds, sun, moon, ants and crow etc.
228
The Concept of Garbhadharana (Rain Conception)

Margshirsha Shukla Paksha Pratipat Prabhrutiksha pakare shadham I
Purvam Vas Mupagate Garbhanam Lakshanam Dneyam II (BS-21-6)
Yan Nakshatra Mupagate Garbha Chandre Bhavet sa Chandra Vashat I
Panch Navate Din Shate Tatraiv Prasav Mayati II (BS-21-7)

Meaning:- When moon is in Purvashadha nakshatra (constellation) in Margashirsha month, from that day Vrushti Garbhadharana (i.e. Rainfall conception ) observations should be started.
When rain conception is occurred in particular Chandra nakshatra (moon constellation) then rain delivery occur after 195 days when moon (Chandra) comes in same nakshatra (constellation). So, there is clear indication of conception of rain, gestational period, delivery time precisely in above verses from Varahmihir’s (VM’s) Bruhat-Samhita (BS).

Area of rain delivery:

Pancha Nimittaih Shat Yojanan tadardha dhame kahanyantah I
Varshati Pancha Samanta Drupenai Kenayo Garbhah II (BS-21-35)

Meaning:- Wind, light rain, lightning, thunder and cloud are five rain conception signs, if occurred at a time, then rain delivery will occur at 100 yojan radius. If there are four signs together occurring, then rain deliver occur at 50 yojan radius, for three signs rain will occur at 25 yojan, for two signs rain will occur at 12.5 yojan and one sign will give rain in 5 yojan radius area.

Gestation and Delivery

Gestation period is 192+ 1 calendar days. Delivery after 12 hours from time of conception, Morning to Evening, Evening To Morning, Day To Night, Night To Next Day. Gestation and delivery are during –When moon is in same constellation about 192 days. When gestation is during blue moon period delivery is in full moon period. When gestation is during full moon period delivery is in blue moon period. Process is Psychosomatic:- Note of JOY appears at point of conception. It is expressed through tone of voice of birds and animals.Temperature & Humidity levels change. Further detailed investigations were carried out by ancient meteorologists and “Antariksh Method” of “long range forecasting of rainfall” was firmly established in the post-vedic period. The same “Antariksh Method”, which should be evaluated in the light of modern meteorology by using sophisticated instrumentation.
229
References of rainfall process and its prediction in Vedic and post-vedic period

In all the 4 Vedas i.e. Rigved, Yajurved, Samved and Atharvaveda, we find innumerable references relating to cloud formation and rainfall process Rigved Mandal 5.83 Sukta, and Atharvaved- 4.15 sukta gives picturesque description of monsoon showers accompanied by wind, thunder and lightning. In 5.3.5.17 of Shatapath Brahman of Shukla Yajurved clearly indicates the rainfall process in the following words.

Agnarvai Dhumo Jayate │
Dhumat Abhram │
Abhrat Vrushti │

(5.2.5.17 of Shatapath Brahman of Shukla Yajurveda)

Meaning:- “From Agni smoke arises, from smoke clouds, and from clouds rain”.

Hundreds of rain inducing experiments are given in four Vedas and in ancient scripts viz., Ashvalayan Brahman, Kaushitaki Brahman, Shatapath Brahman/ Gopath Brahman, Tandya Brahman of Samved, Aitareya Brahman and Taittiriya Brahman etc. Aranyak Granthas viz., Aitareya aranyak and Taittiriya Aranyak etc., Upanishad Granthas viz., Chandogya Upnishad, Ishavasya, Shwetashwetar, Kath, Kathaka etc. and Sutra Granthas viz., Ashwalayan Sutra, Apastamb, Bodhayan, Kathak, Manav, Varah, Bharadwaj, Saamkhayan, Jaimini, Latyayan, Drahyayan etc.
Prayoga Books- Rigvidhan, Yajurvidhan, Samvidhan, Atharvavidhan etc. Purnanas viz., Padma puran, Matsya-puran, Agni puran etc. in all 18 puranas, Smruti Granthas viz., Manu Smruti, Godhul Smruti, Vashisha, Parashar and Kashyapa etc. and Epics viz., Ramayan, Mahabharat, Bhagwad Gita etc.
In post Vedic period samhitas of meteorological science were written by experts viz., 1)Vedang Jyotish by Maharshi Lougakshi. 2) Rishi Parashar Samhita 3) Rishi Garga 4) Rishi Kashyapa 5) Dewal Samhita 6) Jeevanarth 7) Samavatsarphal 8) Acharya Kautilya 9) Narad Samhita 10) Rishi Vashisha 11) Guru Samhita 12 Meghamala 13) Bruhat Samhita of Varah Mihir. The books based on folk lores like 14) Ghaga –Bhaddari Samhita written in Gujarat and Maharashtra. During twentieth century books were written like 15) Rutu Vijnan of Dr. Dhuniram Tripathi 16) Kadambini of Pt. Madhusudan Oza and many others are available.
In Koran, Bible and Zend Avesta books we come across many references regarding signals of rain process. Bible referred in book “Monsoon Prediction” 6.7 conclusion (Kelkar, 2008) as – The bible gives an account (Matthew 16: 1-4, Luke 12:54-56) of how once people had come to Jesus and asked him to show them a sign from heaven. He replied:-
230
“When evening comes, you say, ‘It will be fair weather, for the sky is red, and in the morning, ‘Today it will be stormy, for the sky is red and overcast’.
“When you see a cloud rising in the west, immediately you say “It is going to rain”, and it does. And when south wind blows, you say, ‘It’s going to be hot’, and it is. You know how to interpret the appearance of the earth and sky, but you cannot interpret the signs of the times”. Nature does allow us to predict the future. The monsoon indeed shows its signs. We must learn to interpret them.

Case Study – V:- Validation of RCRD theory of VM at Barshi (Dist Solapur, MS):-

Varaha Mihir (VM) quotes rain-conception period of 6 months from Ashwin Krishna Paksha to Vaishak Purnima i.e. from October-November to April-May month. According to VM if we observe specific symptoms in atmosphere and sky, there will be delivery of Rain after 190 to 195 days, in analogy with human gynecology. The observations of rainfall conception based on 17 symptoms (Table 8) taken for the period (approx. six months i.e. 180 days) between Ashwin Krishna paksha (dark half of Ashwin month i.e. October-November 2003 to Vaishakh Pournima (April-May month of 2004) was used for daily prediction of rainfall during ensuing monsoon season of 2004 for Barshi, Dist. Solapur. Similar observations of Rain Conception were taken from 2003 (for Monsoon 2004) to 2012 (for Monsoon season 2013). The yearly average skill score of RCRD for Barshi location (MS) is mentioned in Table 9. The overall average Yes/No skill score for rainfall prediction was 78.34% (Table 9). The lowest skill score of 74.5% was found in year 2007 and highest skill score of 86.2% was found in the year 2006.

Table 8. Code numbers for symptoms of rain conceptions.
Sr. No. Code No. for Symptoms of rain conception Particulars of rain conception
1 1 Rainy Clouds
2 2 Blood Red Color before Sunrise approximate 15 to 20 minutes at East
3 3 Blood Red Color 15 to 20 Minutes after Sunset
4 4 Squalls
5 5 Wind Blowing Direction
6 6 Roaring Clouds
7 7 Lightening
8 8 Gusty Weather
9 9 Rain –Trace amount
10 10 Rainbow
11 11 Ants ( Black or Red ) carrying eggs
12 12 Patang flying (Flying insects)
13 13 Halo around Moon
14 14 Halo around Sun
15 15 Hot – Humid weather
16 16 Haze
17 17 Dew
231

Scientifically it is proved that the results of Yes/No skill score of rainfall prediction made for Barshi by RCRD theory is nearly 78.34% (which is far better by all standards as compared to daily rain prediction by other methods like Astro-meteorological method, modern methods like synoptic method of short range forecasting (2-3 days) or by location specific Numerical Weather Prediction method (valid for five days) by using Super Computers). In general the skill score was good and it can be concluded that the rainfall prediction can be made successfully based on the rainfall conception observation with a better accuracy (Varshneya et al., 2008).
Table 9. Skill Score (%) for rain prediction based on RCRD for Barshi, Dist.
Solapur (MS)
Sr. No. Monsoon Season Yes/No Skill Score (%)
(Avg. of June to October)
1. 2004 74.8
2. 2005 77.1
3. 2006 86.2
4. 2007 74.5
5. 2008 80.3
6. 2009 77.2
7. 2010 78.0
8. 2011 77.0
9. 2012 80.0
10. 2013 78.3
Average 78.34

Page 232
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The author is expressing sincere thanks to Dr. Vyas Pandey, Professor and Head, Department of Agricultural Meteorology, AAU, Anand, Prof. M.C. Varshneya, Hon. VC, Kamdhenu University, Gandhinagar, Somayaji Nanaji Kale, Executive Chairman of Shri. Yogiraj Ved Vijnana Ashram, Barshi, Dist. Solapur (MS) and Kai. Vijay Bhat for extending support, encouragement and valuable guidance for the research in the rare branch of ancient science of rain prediction and enhancement.